AMN projects Northgate District for the Civic Alliance
With 78% of ballots counted, the Decision Desk calls a seat that has changed hands in each of the last three cycles.
- Civic Alliance leads by 6.2 points with 78% reporting; remaining precincts favour the party historically.
- Turnout is running 4.1 points above the previous cycle, concentrated in suburban wards.
- The seat brings the Alliance within four of the threshold needed to form a working majority.
Machine-generated from the reporting on this page and reviewed by an AMN editor before publication.
The AMN Decision Desk has projected Northgate District for the Civic Alliance, a call made at 22:58 with 78% of ballots counted and a 6.2-point margin that our models judge insurmountable given the composition of the outstanding precincts.
Northgate has changed hands in each of the last three cycles, and both parties treated it as the clearest single indicator of suburban movement this year.
Turnout across the district is running 4.1 points above the previous cycle. The increase is concentrated in the outer suburban wards, where the Alliance improved on its previous margin by roughly nine points.
The projection brings the Alliance within four seats of the threshold required to form a working majority without the support of the regional blocs.
Six races remain uncalled. The Decision Desk will publish updated probabilities as each tranche of results is certified.